WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF TURKEY ENTERS EU?
POTENTIAL CHANGES IN AGRICULTURAL INDICATORS

Erol H. Çakmak (Middle East Technical University)
Haluk Kasnakoğlu (ESSD, FAO)

After completing the major requirements for membership, the negotiation process between EU and candidates requires heavy work to anticipate the impact of membership on the candidate country and EU. The principal aim of this study is to contribute to the potential impacts of EU membership on the agricultural sector in Turkey.

A regional agricultural sector model (TASM-EU) has been used to quantify the effects of membership. TASM-EU is a non-linear optimization model with endogenous prices. The missing part of the cost functions are estimated using the positive mathematical programming calibration technique. The base period of the model is 1997-99 average.

After calibration the model is projected to 2005 using two scenarios: out-EU and in-EU. Two simulations are conducted for in-EU: with and without the area compensation payments. The preliminary results indicate that EU membership will have positive impact on consumers' welfare, but producers will suffer, especially without compensatory area payments. Livestock sector will shrink significantly. Despite the increase in the net exports of crops, the net imports of livestock products will show a significant increase. The increase in the consumption of basic food products will be achieved at a much lesser cost.