THE IMPACT OF GOVERNMENT R&D IN STIMULATING PRIVATE R&D IN OECD COUNTRIES (1981-1998):
PROJECTIONS FOR TURKEY

Umut GÜR (DPT)
Şeref SAYGILI (DPT)

Within this study, it is attempted to identify the relationship between the private and government R&D expenditures based on an analysis conducted for OECD countries within the period of 1981-1998. Two phases were distinguished with regard to the comparative levels of private and government R&D expenditures: (i) 1st Phase in which government R&D expenditures remain higher than the private R&D expenditures and (ii) 2nd Phase in which the reverse holds. A model was developed to forecast per capita private expenditures for given levels of per capita government R&D expenditures. Considering Turkey's per capita private R&D expenditure level of 1997 as the base level, the model was solved for the period of 2002-2023 under the scenarios of different per capita government R&D expenditure levels. It is observed that without attaining considerable levels of per capita government R&D expenditures during the 1st Phase, per capita private R&D expenditures cannot be drawn to sufficient levels in the terminal year (2023).