RISK MANAGEMENT METHODOLOGY IN LATVIAN ECONOMICS

Irina ARHIPOVA (Latvia University of Agriculture)
Sergejs ARHIPOVS (Latvia University of Agriculture)

One of the actual problems of the economics sciences and practices is Latvian national economy risk management scientific basis working out. The main tasks of risk management are risk management methodology elaboration, identification of risk factors, analysis, assessment, acceptation of decision, components and principles of monitoring and adaptation to Latvia's conditions. The main components of risks analysis were considered and gross domestic product (GDP) model has been examined for GDP forecasting. GDP forecast a risk has been evaluated using time series model and additive model with Monte-Carlo simulation method. The best GDP forecast model has been offered and comparison with real data has been made.