LEADING SECTORS OF THE TURKISH MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY: A DETAILED MICRO ANALYSIS AND COMPARISONS FROM A MACRO ASPECT

Bora DİRİK (Marmara University)
Koray ÇAĞLAYAN (Marmara University)
Özge ÖZVARDAR (Marmara University)

The main concern of this study is to analyze the production performance of manufacturing industry in Turkey with respect to its sub-sectors (i.e. building-construction, textile, automobile…) between the years 1987 and 2001. There are mainly two criteria looked for in order to compare the sectors; the contribution of each sector to the domestic production and the sectoral productivity. The Cobb-Douglas production functions for each of the sectors are derived in order to analyze the production process of the sectors taking variables such as labor, capital, technology and productivity into consideration. Sector productivities are calculated with the help of total and partial differential methods. A simple equation time series regression is set by using OLS technique to compare the sectors according to their contribution to GDP by value addition so that sectors can be given weight according to their shares in GDP. To evaluate the soundness of the sectors, the volatility in production is modeled by ARCH and GARCH techniques. Finally, the sectors that outperform the others in productivity namely "the leading sectors of Turkish economy" are analyzed. Some forecasts and recommendations for the coming years are made in the final part.