POLITICAL BUSINESS CYCLES FROM OTTOMAN EMPIRE

Hakan BERUMENT (Bilkent University)
Aslı GÜNAY (Bilkent University)

This study asses if the Consumer Price Inflation from Ottoman Empire from 1457 to 1913 changes with sultans; historical era of Ottoman empire (expansion, steady and shrinkage); constitutional monarch versus absolute monarch; change of sultans and during wars. The initial empirical evidence suggests that wars, change of throne increases inflation but it is mostly fiscal phenomena rather than monetary. Moreover, state of inflation are different for each sultan, each historical era of Ottoman history and Meşrutiyet era. We believe this study uses longest historical data on inflation the longest ever and provides unique robust statistics on inflation cycles where there is no central bank.